If you want to understand the risks associated with Covid19, it’s well worth watching Professor David Spiegelhalter on the Andrew Marr show this morning.
Starts at 46 minutes:
Here’s a summary:
Infection Fatality Rate <1%, implies at least 3.5M people in the UK infected with the virus but it could be double that or even half the population.
Excess deaths 4 weeks to 24/4 nearly double the norm (79k vs 42k). Only 27k have CV19 on the death certificate. That leaves ~3k deaths per week “unexplained”. Many have been attributed to the disruption to the healthcare system – deaths happening out of hospitals that we wouldn’t have expected at this time of year. More than half the deaths in Care Homes are not being labeled as CV19; people not going to hospitals for treatment.
How scared should we be?
This is turning from a societal threat into risk management. People’s anxiety should be proportional to the risks they actually face.
2 out of 10M under-15s have died of CV19. Talk of “protecting our children” is a bit of a delusion.
26 out of 17M under-25s have died of CV19 – the same risk as a couple of days of general accidents and sudden death. It is completely trivial.
More than 1% of the over-90s have died of CV19. That is 10,000 times the risk for younger people.
The daily press briefings are completely embarrassing. Not trustworthy communication of statistics. A missed opportunity. People get fed “number theatre”.